Russia-Ukraine war live: Russia accuses British diplomats of espionage while Putin threatens the West over long-range weapons

Frank Gardner
Security Correspondent

Is Vladimir Putin bluffing? This is the assessment that strategic planners – and elected politicians – in Washington and other Western capitals must now face.

Those in favor of allowing Ukraine to launch long-range missiles at Russia argue that none of the so-called “red lines” in this war have led to anything so far.

The Russian president hinted at retaliation if the West supplied Ukraine with battle tanks, long-range artillery and eventually F16 fighter jets. But each time nothing happened.

Putin already believes his country is at war with NATO, just not in name. So what difference would that make, some argue? But if Russia were to retaliate this time, it has a wide range of options short of declaring war.

At the milder end of the spectrum could be so-called subliminal attacks such as cyber attacks, the disruption of submarine cables or the use of drones to disrupt Western air traffic.

Other, far more dangerous but less likely options would be the detonation of a tactical nuclear warhead against Ukraine or an attack on a weapons supply base in a NATO country such as Poland. And these are precisely the scenarios that Washington wants to avoid at all costs.