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Government shutdown in October 2024: What you should know

Top line

Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has canceled a planned vote on a new budget bill for Wednesday. The vote comes 19 days before the existing bill expires, which would trigger a shutdown due to bipartisan opposition. This fight is weighing on Republicans' chances of retaining their majority in the House.

Key data

The bill, backed by Johnson, would have continued funding the government at current spending levels through March 28 and added a measure requiring proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration.

Trump urged Republicans on Tuesday to reject the bill if the election provision was not included, writing on Truth Social: “Unless Republicans in the House and Senate receive absolute assurances on election security, THEY SHOULD NOT PROCEED WITH IT.”

Johnson withdrew the bill when it became clear that he did not have the votes needed to pass the bill given the narrow Republican majority of 220 to 211 in the House. Several Republicans expressed their intention to vote against the bill for various reasons. For example, Republican Rep. Tom Massie of Kentucky said they opposed it because the bill did not include any cuts to existing spending.

Even if Johnson gets the votes he needs, the bill would be doomed to fail in the Democratic-controlled Senate. The White House has announced that President Joe Biden will veto the bill. In a statement on Monday, the House called the voter ID requirement “incoherent, cynical legislation” and criticized the lack of an increase in military funding.

If the interim bill is passed without the voter ID provision, it would be a blow to Trump. And if the Republican Party refuses to pass a budget without the provision, thereby triggering a shutdown, it risks angering voters in swing districts.

Contra

Trump has repeatedly suggested without evidence that Democrats are facilitating illegal immigration and helping to register undocumented immigrants as voters. Voting by noncitizens is already illegal, and attempts to circumvent the law are rare. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said earlier this month that more than 6,500 noncitizens have been purged from the state's voter rolls since 2021, a small fraction of the nearly 18 million registered voters in the state. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger also said his office found that between 1997 and 2022, 1,634 noncitizens tried to register to vote, but election officials flagged their applications before they could actually cast their ballots.

Large number

9. That's the number of House seats in undecided districts that Republicans are defending in the November election, while Democrats are defending 10 seats.

Important background

Biden signed the existing $1.2 trillion budget bill in March to fund the government through the end of the fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. The budget came more than six months late after lawmakers passed so-called “continuation resolutions” four times to continue funding the government at fiscal year 2023 levels while they negotiated a full-year budget package. Johnson has repeatedly had to contend with the small flank of far-right Republicans who have taken advantage of the GOP's slim majority to push their demands in negotiations over the budget and a number of other legislative proposals. Negotiations over the budget are particularly sensitive for Johnson because he would need the support of nearly all of his constituents in his district to win re-election as speaker if Republicans retain control of the House.

More information

House of Representatives passes $1.2 trillion budget with bipartisan support – government shutdown likely averted after months of negotiations (Forbes)

Government shutdown averted – for now: Biden signs law to extend budget for at least another week (Forbes)

Biden signs $1.2 trillion spending bill, ending repeated concerns about a government shutdown after months of negotiations (Forbes)

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